Mr. Montfort Mlachila, IMF Deputy Director of the African Department
...Just as a fragile dawn began to break over sub-Saharan Africa’s economies, a new storm gathered—not on the savannah, but in the deserts of the Middle East. And now, the International Monetary Fund is sounding an urgent alarm: the cost of living crisis is soaring once again, and the continent’s hard-won gains are buckling under the pressure.
In its latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, titled “Hard-Won Gains Under Pressure,” the IMF reveals a devastating reversal of fortune. The ripple effects from the ongoing Middle East conflict—from spiking oil and fertiliser prices to fractured transport routes—are tightening a noose around the region’s most vulnerable nations.
A Momentum Interrupted
Let us be clear about what is at stake. Entering 2026, sub-Saharan Africa was riding a wave of genuine optimism. The region had just recorded its fastest growth in a decade—4.5 percent in 2025—driven by falling macroeconomic imbalances, rising investment, and a rare spell of external calm.
Countries like Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, and Rwanda were outpacing the pack with growth exceeding 6 percent. Median inflation had cooled to about 3.5 percent. Public debt was finally retreating. For the first time in years, resilience was not just a buzzword—it was a reality.
Then came the war.
“But the war in the Middle East has really put a damper on all this,” Montford Mlachila, Deputy Director of the IMF’s African Department, told Africanews in a special interview. “First and foremost, by increasing the prices of oil itself, as well as for fertilisers, making it a lot more difficult for transportation, and also in areas such as tourism.”
By the Numbers: A Region Reeling
The IMF’s revised projections are sobering. Regional growth is now expected to ease slightly to 4.3 percent by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, median inflation—which had been tamed—is forecast to climb back to 5.0 percent.
That may sound modest. But on the ground, where families already spend the majority of their income on food and fuel, a 1.5-percentage-point inflation spike is a gut punch.
And the human toll is staggering. The IMF estimates that a 20 percent surge in international food prices—a scenario made more likely by the war—could push an additional 20 million people across Africa into moderate or severe food insecurity.
Twenty million lives. That is not a statistic. That is a continent crying out.
The Aid Crunch: A Double Catastrophe
As if conflict-driven inflation were not enough, sub-Saharan Africa—the world’s largest recipient of foreign aid—has been blindsided by unprecedented bilateral aid cuts. In 2025 alone, the region lost an estimated 4to4to7 billion compared to 2024 levels, a reduction of between 16 and 28 percent.
These are not abstract budget lines. These are health clinics shutting down. Classrooms without teachers. Food rations halved in refugee camps.
“The impact of that is going to be felt quite a lot, especially in the most vulnerable countries,” Mlachila said. “These are the poorest countries, and those especially that are facing major humanitarian needs in areas like health and education. This is quite a big impact, a big shock—because it’s happening at the same time.”
Who Is Most at Risk?
According to the IMF, the countries facing the greatest pressure are not all equal. The hardest hit are oil-importing nations that were already starting from a weak position—those with high inflation, low international reserves, sluggish growth, and yawning fiscal deficits.
On the other hand, nations with adequate buffers—healthy reserves, lower inflation, and stronger growth—can better weather the storm.
The IMF explicitly names Sierra Leone, the Central African Republic, and South Sudan as among those facing particular pressure in addressing these compounding shocks.
A Path Forward—Or a Warning Ignored?
The IMF insists its policy support is focused on one goal: making African countries more resilient. But resilience cannot be built overnight, and it cannot be built alone.
The Middle East war is not Africa’s conflict. Yet, once again, the continent is paying the heaviest price for turmoil it did not create. From the fertilizer-depleted farms of the Sahel to the fuel-starved factories of the Great Lakes, the message is the same:
Africa’s recovery was real. It was working. But the world’s fires have a way of burning the most vulnerable first.
The question now is not whether Africa will feel the heat. It already does. The question is whether the global community will watch it burn—or finally act.