Kenyans could soon feel the pinch at the pumps, with petrol projected to hit Ksh231.68 per litre in the next pricing cycle, according to warnings from the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya (POAK). The anticipated increase, ranging between Ksh30 and Ksh60, is driven by rising global oil prices and persistent local supply pressures.

Temporary Calm, Looming Surge

Martin Chomba, POAK Chair, told Inooro FM on April 7 that the current stability in pump prices is temporary. “Most of the fuel being sold today was imported a month ago, before recent global spikes. The next review, set for April 14, will reflect the new reality,” he said.

Regional trends also paint a concerning picture. Tanzania recently raised fuel prices by over 30 percent, signaling potential ripple effects for Kenya. Chomba warned that delaying price adjustments could disrupt supply.

Limited Reserves Expose Vulnerabilities

Kenya’s dependence on continuous imports leaves the country vulnerable. Chomba revealed that fuel in pipelines could last only 21 to 30 days, with no strategic reserves to cushion sudden supply shocks. “If no ship docked at Mombasa today, we would face a crisis immediately,” he warned.

Government Holds Off Hikes—for Now

Government spokesperson Isaac Mwaura said that fuel prices will remain stable in the immediate term thanks to advance shipments. “We have received the next consignment for April, and there is no cause for alarm,” he told Channel Africa, stressing efforts to stabilise supplies.

Distribution and Quality Challenges

Despite large consignments, smaller fuel retailers—responsible for 68% of fuelling points—report limited access to supply. In regions like Kirinyaga, fuel remains in storage but has not reached retail stations.

Concerns over substandard fuel imports persist. Chomba indicated that some shipments may have higher sulphur content, which, while usable, could affect compliance with preferred standards.

Fuel shipments offloaded at the Port of Mombasa are stored in Kenya Pipeline Company tanks or government facilities before being cleared for sale. Delays in clearance, coupled with the private sector’s control over storage, can slow the flow to consumers.

Market Forces Set the Tone

While the government could deploy the Petroleum Development Levy to cushion consumers, Chomba emphasised that global oil trends and private sector dynamics will ultimately determine pump prices.

For now, motorists face a looming dilemma: rising global costs, constrained domestic supply, and the possibility that Ksh231.68 per litre could become the new normal in the coming week.

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