It sounded like the commuter’s ultimate loophole: a bus that doesn’t drink diesel, immune to the pump price rollercoaster, a quiet green machine gliding past petrol stations without a care.
Then came the 25% fare hike — and the electric buses raised their prices too.
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On Wednesday, April 15, as matatu owners jacked up fares across Nairobi by up to Ksh50 per trip, thousands of passengers assumed that battery-powered buses would remain an oasis of affordability. After all, they don’t burn a litre of super or diesel. Why would their fares move?
Yet within hours, electric buses across the city — from the BasiGo fleet to newer entrants — matched the increases penny for penny. Commuters were left confused, then angry.
“It doesn’t make sense,” said Peter Omondi, a regular passenger on the electric bus route from T-Mall to CBD. “If it doesn’t use fuel, why am I paying the same as someone on a smoke-belching 14-seater?”
The answer, as it turns out, is a masterclass in how Kenya’s public transport economy really works — and it has little to do with batteries.
The Cartel of the Fare Table
Behind every matatu fare in Nairobi is not a simple calculator of fuel consumed, but a complex web of collective pricing agreements.
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The Matatu Owners Association (MOA), alongside Sacco federations, the Kenya Transporters Association, and even the Motorists Association, typically set route-wide fares in tandem. Many major Saccos — including those pioneering electric fleets — operate mixed fleets of both diesel and electric vehicles.
“If an electric bus undercuts diesel buses on the same route by keeping fares lower, that’s considered unfair competition,” explained Caroline Nduku, a transport economist based at Strathmore University. “The Sacco would essentially be punishing its own diesel members. So they flatten the pricing across the board.”
In other words: solidarity over savings. To avoid a price war within their own ranks, operators force electric buses to mirror the hikes of their fossil-fuel cousins.
The Hidden Kilowatt: Thermal Power’s Dirty Secret
But there’s a second, more subtle mechanism at work — one that reaches all the way to Kenya’s electricity grid.
While electric buses don’t burn diesel on the road, the electricity that charges their batteries comes from a national grid that still relies heavily on thermal power plants. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) 2025 Energy Economic Report, approximately 27% of Kenya’s electricity is generated from fossil fuels, primarily heavy fuel oil and diesel-fired turbines.
When EPRA raises fuel prices, the cost of running those thermal plants climbs immediately. Kenya Power and Lighting Company (KPLC) passes these costs through to consumers via the fuel cost charge — a variable levy on every kilowatt-hour.
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Data from the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) shows that a 10% increase in diesel prices typically translates to a 3–5% rise in the fuel cost charge within one billing cycle. For fleet operators charging dozens of electric buses nightly, that adds up to thousands of shillings.
“Electric bus operators are not immune to fuel inflation — they just feel it on their electricity bill instead of at the pump,” said Eng. James Mwangi, an energy policy analyst. “Thermal generation acts as a transmission belt for oil price shocks straight into the EV sector.”
The Ripple Effect: Tyres, Spare Parts, and Inflation
Beyond direct energy costs, higher fuel prices send shockwaves through every corner of the logistics chain.
Tyres — A single electric bus tyre costs upwards of Ksh25,000. Transporting those tyres from Mombasa to Nairobi becomes pricier when diesel for cargo trucks rises.
Spare parts — Most electric bus components are imported. Freight charges, insurance, and clearing fees all track fuel costs.
Maintenance — Service crews travel to depots using diesel vehicles. Even the lubricants and greases used on electric buses are petroleum-derived.
Kenya’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for transport recorded a 6.8% year-on-year inflation as of March 2026, with fuel price volatility cited as the primary driver across all transport modes — electric included.
Research Brief: The Asymmetry Returns — But This Time It’s Different
Unlike the classic “rockets and feathers” phenomenon where fares rise fast but fall slow, electric buses face a symmetrical but indirect exposure. A 2024 study in Energy for Sustainable Development (Vol. 82) examined EV public transport in emerging economies and found that “fleet-level pricing coordination and grid fuel-cost pass-through eliminate any inherent fare advantage for electric buses during fuel price spikes.”
In other words, going electric doesn’t protect your wallet — it just changes the channel through which the pain arrives.
What This Means for Commuters
For now, Nairobi’s electric bus commuters have no cheaper alternative. The green promise of lower operating costs is real — but it accrues to the operator, not the passenger, as long as fare-setting remains cartelised.
Unless regulators intervene to decouple electric bus fares from diesel benchmarks, or unless dedicated all-electric Saccos emerge with independent pricing, the electric commuter will continue paying diesel-era prices.
As one frustrated passenger put it: “The bus is silent, but my pocket is screaming the same old story.”
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