As the midnight hour approaches for Kenya’s latest pump price review, the nation’s motorists are no longer just gripping the steering wheel—they are digging in their heels. In a rare show of unified defiance, the Motorists Association of Kenya (MAK) has issued a stark warning to the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA): raise fuel prices on April 14, and you risk igniting an already smoldering cost-of-living crisis.

The ultimatum comes against a fog of unverified but persistent reports that EPRA is considering a staggering Ksh5 per litre hike across all three fuel categories—super petrol, diesel, and kerosene—for the 30-day pricing cycle ending May 14, 2026. If confirmed, the increase would mark one of the most politically sensitive adjustments since President William Ruto’s administration dismantled the fuel subsidy regime upon taking office.

Currently, EPRA’s gazetted prices stand at Ksh178.28 for super petrol, Ksh166.54 for diesel, and Ksh152.78 for kerosene—levels that, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, have already pushed transport inflation to a 14-month high of 6.8 percent as of March 2026.

‘A Ticking Time Bomb for Households’

In a strongly worded statement released early Tuesday, MAK argued that any upward revision would be not only economically irrational but socially reckless.

“The timing of this review is critical. Kenyan households and businesses are still hemorrhaging from rising transport and commodity costs. An increase will not be a mere adjustment—it will be a body blow,” the association warned.

This sentiment is echoed by recent research from the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA Kenya), which found that a Ksh5 increase in pump prices triggers a cascading 2.3 percent rise in the cost of basic food items within two weeks. With maize flour, cooking oil, and bread already 12 to 18 percent costlier than six months ago, economists fear a fresh fuel shock could push an additional 1.2 million Kenyans below the poverty line.

Subsidy Ghost Haunts Ruto’s Promise

MAK’s statement took a pointed political turn, directly challenging the administration’s 2022 decision to scrap fuel subsidies—a move initially defended as necessary to correct market distortions and reduce state debt.

“The removal of subsidies has exposed ordinary Kenyans to extreme price shocks that directly affect food, transport, and business operations. Good governance demands policies that prioritise citizens, not the exploitation of vulnerable populations,” MAK said.

The association’s language mirrors findings from a March 2026 working paper by the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC), which concluded that Kenya’s abrupt subsidy withdrawal—without parallel social safety nets—resulted in a 22 percent higher welfare loss for low-income urban households compared to phased reforms in Uganda and Tanzania.

The Ksh43 Question: Shadow Deals and Opaque Barrels

Perhaps the most explosive allegation in MAK’s statement targets the government-to-government (G2G) fuel procurement framework, which replaced the Open Tender System in 2023. According to the motorists, this arrangement has secretly inflated costs by approximately Ksh43 per litre, enriching unnamed private actors through “opaque structures.”

While the Ministry of Energy has consistently defended the G2G model as a strategic buffer against supply disruptions—especially following the Russia-Ukraine war and Red Sea shipping crises—a 2025 audit by the Office of the Auditor General flagged “significant anomalies” in pricing formulas and beneficiary disclosures. The audit noted that between July 2024 and December 2025, Kenya paid an average premium of $12 per barrel above regional benchmarks under G2G contracts.

Dr. Muthoni Kimani, an energy economist at Strathmore University, explains: “The lack of competitive bidding creates informational asymmetry. We simply cannot verify whether we are paying fair market prices. That Ksh43 figure may be debatable, but the opacity is not.”

Wandayi’s Vow vs. Public Skepticism

Just 24 hours before MAK’s warning, Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi appeared before Parliament’s Energy Committee with a soothing assurance: no significant increase is coming. According to Wandayi, a controversial fuel consignment from One Petroleum Company—which alone would have added Ksh14 per litre—was deliberately excluded from the April-May pricing matrix.

Yet, rather than calm the public, the CS’s statement appears to have fueled speculation. Social media channels and WhatsApp groups popular with matatu operators and boda boda riders are now buzzing with claims that EPRA will quietly impose a Ksh5 increase on super petrol, effectively sidestepping Wandayi’s “significant” threshold through semantic gymnastics.

As one Nairobi-based economist, who requested anonymity due to ongoing contracts with the ministry, put it: “Marginal increases are still increases. When your tank fills from Ksh178 to Ksh183, that’s not academic. That’s your children’s school fare.”

What Happens Next?

EPRA is expected to release its official April-May 2026 pricing directive by 11:59 PM tonight. The authority has historically maintained that its reviews follow a technical formula—global oil prices (currently hovering at $84 per barrel, down 6 percent from February), exchange rate movements (KES 142 to the USD, relatively stable), and statutory taxes (including the 16 percent VAT and Railway Development Levy).

But MAK is no longer asking for technical mercy. They are demanding political accountability.

“Any increase would further burden Kenyans and deepen the ongoing economic crisis. We call on EPRA to reduce prices or, at the very least, maintain current levels to reflect global trends and protect consumers.”

As the nation waits, one thing is certain: the battle over fuel is no longer just about miles per gallon. It is about whether Kenya’s regulatory architecture serves its people—or merely refuels an invisible machinery of privilege.

For now, the nation holds its breath. And its empty tank.