Diesel rockets Sh40.30, petrol up Sh28.69 – and the worst may be yet to come
NAIROBI, April 15, 2026 – Kenyan motorists and businesses are staring into the eye of a brutal economic storm after the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (Epra) announced a record-shattering fuel price increase of up to Sh40.30 per litre, effective midnight.
In what is now the steepest single-month jump since the introduction of the current pricing regime, a litre of diesel will retail at Sh206.84 in Nairobi, while petrol climbs to Sh206.97. The increases come despite government subsidies of Sh20.30 and Sh4.92 per litre on diesel and petrol respectively — a clear signal that global shocks have overwhelmed local cushions.
Only kerosene remains frozen at Sh152.78, shielded by a hefty Sh99.16 subsidy per litre.
The dramatic surge is directly traceable to the escalating US-Israel military campaign against Iran, which has triggered a twin assault on global fuel markets: crude prices above $100 per barrel and a de facto naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — the slender waterway through which nearly a quarter of the world’s seaborne petroleum flows.
“The landed cost of diesel soared by 68.7% to $1,073.82 per cubic metre in March alone,” said Joseph Oketch, Epra’s acting Director-General, in a late-night notice. “Petrol and kerosene landed costs rose 41.5% and 105% respectively. These are not ordinary market fluctuations. This is a conflict-driven shock.”
The Real Economy Will Feel This by Morning
Economists warn that the price spike will detonate inflationary pressures across every sector. Manufacturers, transporters, electricity generators, and farmers — all diesel-dependent — will pass the burden to consumers. Kenya’s inflation, already creeping upward to 4.4% in March from 4.3% in February, is now projected to breach the 5% psychological threshold within weeks.
“This is not just a fueling station problem,” said Dr. Miriam Nduati, an energy economist at the University of Nairobi. “A Sh40 hike on diesel translates to higher matatu fares, more expensive maize flour, elevated cement prices, and a heavier electricity bill for every household. The poor will bear the heaviest load.”
The crisis is compounded by soaring freight and war risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf. Insurers have effectively repriced the entire region as a combat zone, adding an estimated $15–$20 per tonne in shipping costs — costs now baked into every litre.
A Controversial ‘Exclusion’ and a Looming Question
Adding a layer of political intrigue, Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi had assured Kenyans that a costly petrol cargo — imported outside the Government-to-Government (G-to-G) deal and priced at a staggering Sh198,000 per metric tonne — would be excluded from Tuesday’s pricing formula. That single cargo, he said, would have added another Sh14 per litre to petrol prices.
It remains unclear whether the exclusion was fully implemented. Epra’s notice made no explicit mention of the cargo, leaving consumers to wonder if they are paying a hidden premium.
Global Context: A World on Fire Over Oil
The Strait of Hormuz, blockaded by Iranian naval and drone assets in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes on its refining and nuclear infrastructure, normally sees the passage of 20–25 million barrels of oil daily — equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s entire output. With tankers forced to take the longer, costlier route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, delivery times have stretched by 15–30 days, tightening supply and inflating prices.
Brent crude breached $102 per barrel earlier this week, a level not seen since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war peak. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global oil inventories are at their lowest in eight years, leaving virtually no buffer against further supply shocks.
What Happens Next?
The new Epra prices will hold until May 14, 2026. But analysts predict that unless a diplomatic breakthrough de-escalates the Hormuz crisis, the next review could push diesel past Sh230 — a threshold that would likely trigger mass protests and government intervention.
For now, Kenyans are left to do the math: a Sh40 hike on a 60-litre tank adds Sh2,400 to a single fill. For a Nairobi matatu that fills twice daily, that’s nearly Sh150,000 more per month — costs that will inevitably land in your pocket.