The cartels are in the cabinet, not the shadows — and every litre tells the story...

Kiharu Member of Parliament Ndindi Nyoro has launched a blistering attack on President William Ruto's administration, accusing senior government officials of turning the Government‑to‑Government (G‑to‑G) fuel import deal into a "profit machine for cartels" — even as Kenyans dig deeper into their pockets to pay a staggering KSh206.97 per litre of petrol.

In an explosive press briefing on Wednesday, the vocal lawmaker pulled no punches. He charged that the very mechanism touted by the State as a shield against global volatility has instead become a black box where a handful of politically connected insiders carve up the spoils, leaving ordinary citizens to foot the bill.

"G‑to‑G is a profit machine for senior government officials in Kenya. They have extended the greed to all fuel levels in Kenya," Nyoro declared. "The oil in Turkana does not belong to Kenyans — it belongs to leaders. Senior officials are sitting down in dark rooms to cut deals while Kenyans pay the price."

His remarks came just hours after the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) delivered its latest monthly review — a shockwave that sent pump prices soaring. Effective midnight on April 14, super petrol jumped by KSh28.69 per litre, and diesel by a staggering KSh40.30, pushing both past the KSh206 mark in Nairobi. Kerosene remained unchanged at KSh152.78, propped up by a KSh108.10 subsidy.

For millions of Kenyan motorists, transporters, and small businesses, the hike was an immediate gut punch. For Nyoro, it was the final confirmation that the government's much‑vaunted fuel policy is a house of cards.

The Numbers That Don't Add Up

Nyoro, an economist by training, zeroed in on a glaring inconsistency: global oil prices have fallen, yet Kenyan consumers are paying more than ever before.

"Global oil prices were higher in 2022 — they were going for US$115 per barrel — yet Kenyans were paying less at the pump than they are today," he argued. "Today, the global price is lower, around US$98 per barrel, but we are paying more than our neighbours."

His arithmetic finds support in hard data. On April 13, 2026, physical oil surged to a historic US$148.87 per barrel amid the escalating Strait of Hormuz crisis — but Brent futures have since retreated, settling near US$94.81 on April 15 as ceasefire hopes emerged.

Despite this easing, Kenya's pump prices remain stubbornly high. And the regional comparison is damning.

According to data compiled by HyperMax Digital, Kenya now has the most expensive petrol and diesel in East Africa following the EPRA review. In Tanzania, petrol is capped at approximately KSh191 per litre in Dar es Salaam. In Uganda, motorists pay around KSh184 for petrol and as low as KSh174 for diesel. Rwanda's highest‑zone prices approach Kenya's, but most zones are lower. And in Ethiopia, state‑controlled fuel sells for barely KSh118 per litre.

*Source: Regional regulators / GlobalPetrolPrices.com — April 2026*

"If the global price is lower, if our neighbours are paying less, why are Kenyans being squeezed?" Nyoro demanded. "The answer lies not in global markets — it lies in opaque domestic deals."

'Dark Rooms' and the G‑to‑G Scandal

At the heart of Nyoro's indictment is the Government‑to‑Government fuel import arrangement — a deal that was meant to stabilise Kenya's fuel supply and ease pressure on the shilling.

Under the G‑to‑G framework, Kenya imports fuel on 180‑day credit from three state‑owned Gulf firms: Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), and Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC). The deal, extended by 24 months in April 2025, eliminated the monthly scramble for half a billion dollars in spot‑market forex. Freight costs dropped significantly, and for a time, the system appeared to work.

But critics, including Nyoro, argue that the arrangement has been hijacked.

"The G‑to‑G company belongs to the original government owners. Kenyan leaders are not owners — they are middlemen," Nyoro charged. "They are sitting in dark rooms cutting side deals while the public pays."

His accusations are not without corroboration. In recent weeks, a sprawling fuel scandal has emerged, involving the importation of two petroleum consignments totalling 128,000 tonnes outside the G‑to‑G framework. The consignments were allegedly procured at more than three times the contracted price and were of substandard quality. Senior energy officials — including former Petroleum Principal Secretary Mohamed Liban, former EPRA Director‑General Daniel Kiptoo, and former Kenya Pipeline Company Managing Director Joe Sang — have been arrested over the deal.

Even Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has admitted that a high‑cost cargo imported outside the framework — priced at KSh198,000 per metric tonne — was excluded from EPRA's latest pricing formula. Its inclusion, he said, would have added about KSh14 per litre to pump prices.

President Ruto has since warned that "cartels in the oil and petroleum industry out to profit from the crisis in the Middle East will be severely punished."

But for Nyoro, those words ring hollow. "The same people who created this system are now pretending to fight cartels," he said. "You cannot be the arsonist and the firefighter."

'The Oil in Turkana Does Not Belong to Kenyans'

Perhaps the most provocative claim Nyoro made was about Kenya's long‑delayed domestic oil wealth.

"The oil in Turkana does not belong to Kenyans — it belongs to leaders," he declared.

His remark taps into a deep vein of public cynicism. After more than a decade of exploration and billions of shillings in investment, Kenya is still not a commercial oil producer. That may finally change: Gulf Energy has committed US$6 billion (approx. KSh774 billion) to develop the South Lokichar fields in Turkana, with commercial production targeted for December 1, 2026. Recoverable reserves are estimated at about 560 million barrels, and first‑phase production is projected at 20,000 barrels per day.

Yet Nyoro's accusation underscores a broader anxiety: that when the oil finally flows, the benefits will be captured by a narrow elite rather than shared with the Kenyan people.

A Five‑Point Rescue Plan

But Nyoro did not just criticise — he offered a detailed alternative.

In a comprehensive proposal released on Wednesday, the Kiharu MP outlined five urgent measures that he says could reduce pump prices by up to KSh27 per litre immediately:

1. Remove the KSh7 fuel levy introduced in 2024.

2. Cut VAT on fuel by five percentage points — equivalent to approximately KSh8 per litre.

3. Inject an additional KSh5 billion into the Fuel Stabilisation Fund — estimated to lower prices by about KSh12 per litre.

4. Tap the KSh20 billion sitting idle in the Fuel Stabilisation Fund, which Nyoro says remains grossly underutilised.

5. Publish the full cost structure of fuel pricing to restore transparency and prevent hoarding.

"Kenyans are simply demanding the reduction of levies and taxes to the levels they were before 2023," Nyoro said. "We are not asking for new subsidies — we are asking for a reversal of what was taken from us."

He warned that the government's current VAT reduction — from 16% to 8% for three months — falls short and may even be illegal, as the Value Added Tax Act caps Treasury's discretion at a minimum of 12%.

The Economic Ripple: Pain Beyond the Pump

The fuel price surge is not an isolated shock — it is a systemic accelerant.

Already, the Kenya Transporters Association has advised its members to urgently review operating costs, noting that fuel constitutes 55% of total operating costs. Bus and matatu fares have begun rising, with more increases expected.

Economists warn that the hike will cascade through the economy. Higher fuel costs will push up electricity generation costs, as Kenya relies heavily on diesel‑fired thermal power. Manufacturers will face steeper input costs, which will inevitably be passed on to consumers in the form of higher food and goods prices.

The agricultural sector is also feeling the heat. The Kenya Tea Development Agency has warned that tea worth over KSh3 billion is stuck in warehouses due to shipping delays caused by the Middle East war, while fertiliser costs — tied to oil prices — continue to climb.

Kenya's inflation rate had already edged up to 4.4% in April, up from 4.3% in March, and further upward pressure is all but certain.

Political Fallout: A Government on the Defensive

Nyoro is not alone in his criticism.

Siaya Governor James Orengo has accused EPRA of "gaslighting the Kenyan taxpayer," demanding that the regulator publish the full Cost of Service Study used to justify the price hikes. "EPRA didn't just hike fuel prices — they insulted our collective intelligence," Orengo said.

The United Alternative Government, led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, has gone further, alleging that President Ruto personally stands to gain KSh5 per litre from the current pricing structure — translating to an estimated KSh2.5 billion from monthly consumption and up to KSh30 billion since the G‑to‑G arrangement began.

The opposition has issued a seven‑day ultimatum to the government, threatening mass action if fuel prices are not reduced.

The ruling UDA party has dismissed the accusations, with Secretary‑General Hassan Omar calling them "outrageous, naive and anarchist thinking." He insisted that fuel pricing is largely driven by global forces, not local policy failures.

But for Nyoro, that defence no longer holds water.

"We have a 50% opportunity to lower fuel costs through domestic policy choices, not just external factors," he said. "The government must soon call a consultative meeting of all departments involved. Let us not try the patience of Kenyans further."

Looking Ahead: A Test of Credibility

As the April–May pricing cycle unfolds, all eyes are on EPRA's next move. The regulator has already recalculated prices following a VAT cut to 8%, lowering petrol by KSh9.37 and diesel by KSh10.21 to KSh197.60 and KSh196.63 respectively — but those reductions merely blunt the edge of a much deeper wound.

The underlying structural issues remain unresolved. The G‑to‑G deal, for all its short‑term benefits, has been stress‑tested by war and found wanting. The lack of a strategic fuel reserve leaves Kenya dangerously exposed. And the absence of transparency in fuel pricing continues to erode public trust.

Nyoro's diagnosis is stark — and his warning is clear.

"The drastic increment in fuel prices is unacceptable," he said. "A more humane variation must be made by reducing the pump prices now."